Before Going on to the post below, note this except from US Congress' Joint Economic Committee's Report Iran's Oil and Gas Wealth:
Fifty-six percent of Iran’s oil exports are to Asia and 29 percent to Europe. Japan and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) together buy over one-third of Iran’s oil exports. The U.S. buys no oil from Iran (other than specially licensed swaps for Caspian oil).In other word, as of 2006, most of Iran's oil was going to major powers who were US creditors, trade partners,economic competitors, military allies, or some combination thereof. And the push for sanctions affects them all in different ways, adding to the risk inherent in anything we do.
Proof from today's headlines:
Montreal Gazzette
Iran warned Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to rethink an offer to make up for oil lost to world markets as a result of threatened curbs on its exports, as diplomats said an EU embargo may be in force by July.Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi urged Riyadh to "reflect" on its pledge to use its spare capacity to compensate for any reduction in Iran's oil sales that results from U.S.-led efforts to tighten sanctions over the Islamic republic's controversial nuclear program.
Salehi said the Saudi offer was "not friendly."
In a boost to Iran's efforts to protect its key oil sector, its second-biggest client, India, said it had no plans to curtail purchases.
"We continue to buy oil from Iran," Indian Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai said in New Delhi....
Meanwhile, ahead of a key meeting on Monday, diplomats in Brussels said the European Union could have an embargo on Iranian oil imports in force by July, as a compromise took shape between champions of tougher sanctions and member states that rely heavily on purchases from Iran....
Some member states wanted an earlier, three-month deadline, whereas financially stressed nations that rely on Iranian crude - notably Greece, Italy and Spain - wanted up to a year....
Last week, U.S. ally Japan appeared to backtrack on a pledge to cut its imports from Iran, while China has refused to bow to U.S. pressure.
Bloomberg BusinessweekOil Trades Near Three-Day High as Iran Tension Counters Economy
Saudi Arabia can “easily” boost crude production to as much as 11.8 million barrels a day to offset a shortfall from Iran, Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said in an interview with CNN on Jan. 16. The kingdom has the capacity to produce 12.5 million barrels a day and pumps about 9.8 million, he said.
“If this comment is the official stance of Saudi Arabia we advise Saudi officials to be more wise and responsible in their approach,” Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said yesterday, according to the state-run Fars news agency.
European Union foreign ministers are scheduled to meet Jan. 23 to decide on proposed sanctions on Iran’s oil imports, in a bid to halt its nuclear program...
...The global economy will grow 2.5 percent this year, down from a June estimate of 3.6 percent, according to the World Bank. Turmoil in Europe has the potential to trigger a financial crisis reminiscent of 2008, the Washington-based institution said.
Washington Post 1/18/2012
Japan finance minister concerned about effectiveness of sanctions on Iran, impact on banks
Japan has given mixed signals on the sanctions. Azumi declared last week that Japan would move quickly to reduce its oil imports from Iran after meeting with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, but other officials including the prime minister have said economic implications need to be considered.Azumi also struck a more cautious tone Wednesday, telling journalists at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan that if the sanctions were imposed immediately, they could sustain “tremendous” damage to Japanese banks. The sanctions would bar financial institutions from the American market if they do business with Iran’s central bank.
Now, past the thought balloon of progress below, I invite you to read a reprint of my last diary, which I have deleted and posted again. (If this is a problem, please let me know, and I will restore it)